Upset?
I know what you’re thinking. There’s no clear underdog in this one. How can I call it an upset? Well, let me ask you this; is it an upset if it’s expected?
Breath in and try to un-blow your mind from that deep rhetorical question. Now listen to why I’m calling it an upset:
Because Vegas is giving a 3 point spread in favor of the Patriots.
You know it’s a close match up when you have to put your faith in the integrity of Vegas’ bookies.
This is a match up made in media-story-line heaven. Giants Cruz to the Superbowl. Gettin’ Gronk in Indy. Giants are kind of a big Diehl right now. Tom Brady love Justin Bieber.
Maybe not that last one.
Anyway, there are 4 reasons the Giants will win in Indianapolis and by the end of the game Tom Brady will be singing that should be me... the Super Bowl remix. The album drops Feb 5th.
4. The Curse of the Injured Ankle
Will Rob Gronkowski be able to play a major role with his injured ankle?
The loser of the previous two Superbowls had ankle injuries to major contributors on their teams. The Pittsburgh Steelers’ Rookie Sensation Maurkice Pouncey had an ankle injury that prevented him from playing in the Superbowl. As the Center, it changed the structure of the offensive line against a great pass rushing defense. The Colts’ Dwight Freeney also suffered an ankle injury which limited the future hall of fame defensive end from pressuring Saints’ QB Drew Brees.
The Patriots Rob Gronkowski has also suffered a similar issue with his ankle. Like Freeney, Gronk will play with the ankle. Also like Freeney it probably won’t bother him too much. However, like Freeney it will limit Gronk. Freeney had 1 tackle, 1 sack, and 1 QB hit. Not exactly productive.
More concerning for Pats’ fans is that Gronk is more to the Pats offense than Freeney was to the Colts’ defense. Gronkowski is a major part of the offense in that he creates major mismatches. Not only is he 6’6 265 lbs, he also runs a 4.6 40 yard dash. That means he’s fast and he’s got the height to get over you. Not to mention he doesn’t drop anything. To add to that, he’s a vicious blocker. Ask Terrel Suggs.
An ankle injury limits a lot of his talents. Sure he’ll be able to play, but will he be able to hit that 4.6 speed? Dig in to block the Patriot line backers? Cut hard to get inside position on the safeties? History says probably not.
3. Sack City Squad
Hakeem Nicks (left)and Victor Cruz (right) have been lights out this season
The Giants have been less than impressive this season when it comes to defense, but they have proved consistency in one area all year long–QB sacks. The Giants were just 2 sacks shy of the sack leaders with 48 sacks in the regular season and are tied for 1st in the post season for most with 9. Pressure plays a huge roll when it comes to Brady and the Giants have plenty of it. In all 3 losses this year pressure made Brady look vulnerable and even desperate at times. While they didn’t get any sacks, the Bills caused 4 interceptions by forcing Brady to make poor decisions. The Steelers showed the most dominant win of the 3 losses by locking down receivers and taking away Brady’s quick release, and sacking him 3 times. Brady actually fumbled on the final drive which cost them the game. The other team beat them; the Giants.
2. The Terrible Twosome
Anyone up for Salsa dancing? The Giants have their own match up problems for the Patriots. Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz have been simply amazing all season. We’ve seen both receivers on ESPN highlight reels consistently throughout the year. Nicks is a physical receiver whose quick moves and bruising style causes most defensive backs nightmares. Victor Cruz is an agile speedster who has an uncanny knack for adjusting to the ball as well as amazing hands. This twosome has made such a breakout that year that it forced Mario Manningham to the 3rd option in this offense. When Manningham is your 3rd best receiver, your wide receiver corps are doing OK.
The Pats don’t have an answer for these two and it opens the field wide open for Manningham and Tight Ends Jake Ballard and Travis Beckum. It’s going to be too much for New England.
1. Eli Brings 110 to the 4th
Anyone else sick of exaggerated percentages? “I’m gonna give 110% in this game.” “It’s all about giving 150% and doing what needs to be done.” “I’m 1,000% positive I’m right.” No you’re not. You’re going to try hard. You’ll probably risk a little more. Layout for a catch or wrap up a bit tighter. Hustle to the line a bit faster. You’re not going to play better than you’re able. Even if it were possible, it probably wouldn’t end well.
However, Eli brings 110 in the 4th.
No not percentage, QB rating. Eli has been mister clutch all year long. 15 of his 29 touchdowns have been in the 4th quarter. He averages over 9 yards a pass and is over 65% in completing passes. Want a scarier number? Manning had a passer rating of 136.7% in the month of January as well as a 72.7% completion rate and an average of 10 yards a pass. Every pass he gets a first down? Maybe he is giving 110%…
Giants 27- Pats 24
The Pats have Tom Brady and some great talent this year which they’re not use to having. Unfortunately, the Giants are finally taking advantage of the talent that they have. Look for this one to start off slow and not get going till the late 2nd quarter. It will come down to Eli having the ball last and at best another historic drive. At the least, Eli will get his team in the Endzone more than Brady will due to the defensive pressure.
