I’m going to hand out another podcast shout out to the Rise and Shout podcast.  They frequently do over/under stats for BYU and I thought I’d come up with some of my own for the AI family and see what we could come up with.  Check back this whole week for the next in depth look into BYU football.

With Jamaal Williams leading the staple of running backs, 2013 should be promising.  Especially if Robert Anae’s offense clicks in, they will be carrying the ball 30 + plays per game this fall.  That means Michael Alisa, Adam Hine, and even Paul Lasike and Iona Pritchard all have chances to be big contributors this season.

Jamaal Williams: 21 carries/game, 107 yards/game, 15 total rushing touchdowns
All the backs: 32 carries/game, 150 yards/game, 23 season rushing TD, 72 season receptions

Carl: As a group, the running backs will thrive.  And Jamaal will have the opportunity to cease the starting role and run with it.  Anae likes to go with primary running backs, as witnessed last season at Arizona and Ka’Deem Carey.  He was 71 yards short of 2000 for the season.  I hope Jamaal continues where he began last season.  He could have a tremendous season if he does.  Nevertheless, the production catching the football will be a must and the running backs will get their fair share of the receiving workload.

Jamaal: Carries = under   YPG = under   Rush TD = under

Group: Carries = under   YPG = under   Rush TD = under   Rec = over

Matt: Assuming a 50-50 split for run/pass in Anae’s new offense that wants to run 90 plays/game, 32 carries/game (as well as 21 for JW) is way too low, so I’m taking the over.  I think Williams will average just over 107 by himself, but this unit should be close to 200 together.  I’d love to see JW run for 15 scores, but I think he’ll come up short of that so I’m taking the under.  As for the entire unit, I think they will exceed it.  Sure, that means I’m buying into the hype, but I think the record for scores in a season is 25 and this unit may need to do just that to be successful in this system.  I’m at a push for receptions.  That’s 6/game as a unit and I think that is a fair estimate (if you don’t count QB carries.)

Mike: I really hope Jamaal’s numbers exceed the examples below but I doubt it.  Those are remarkable for a BYU running back.  With Anae’s stable of running backs I can’t see JWill getting over 20 carries which leads to the rest his other stats falling short.  As a unit I hope we see overs.  With the exception of the receptions and total TDs I don’t see it.  One would assume Anae will have his sophomore QB throwing to TEs and RBs which should lead to over 72 receptions.  The total rushing TD prediction seems way low.  Love the over there.

Jamaal: Carries = under   YPG = under   Rush TD = under

Group: Carries = under   YPG = under   Rush TD = over   Rec = over

Scott: UNDER/OVER

Jamaal Williams is a great RB coming off a great freshman season. I definitely buy into the hype of him passing Harvey Unga as the all-time rushing leader at BYU (as long as he plays all four years), but I am not sure about 2013. Jamaal will be great, but the way Anae wants to run the offense, it seems like there will be a lot of sharing. I still expect Jamaal to get the most touches out of the running backs, but I don’t know if it will be fair to except nearly 1,300 yards from him this year. That said, I expect the running backs unit to definitely go over those marks. In fact, they weren’t that far off last season, and I expect more from them this year.

I’m going to hand out another podcast shout out to the Rise and Shout podcast.  They frequently do over/under stats for BYU and I thought I’d come up with some of my own for the AI family and see what we could come up with.  Check back this whole week for the next in depth look into BYU football.

BYU has two strong senior returners that could have made a jump to the pros this season but chose not to.  Cody Hoffman is 18 receptions, 537 yards, and 2 touchdowns from becoming the all-time leader at BYU in each statistical category.

Hoffman: 8.5 receptions and 125 yards/game, 13.5 total touchdowns

Kyle Van Noy is one of the most exciting players this team has ever seen and his performance in the bowl game last year will not soon be forgotten.

Van Noy: 1.5 sacks, 1.5 tackles for loss, 5 tackles per game and 3.5 INT and 5.5 forced fumbles for the season

Carl: Cody Hoffman: Let me be crystal clear: if Hoffman is healthy, he will dominate games.  His toughness, size, speed, hands and improved route-running, make him a double cover every down.  That spells a slight downward revision to his overall production, but he’ll find ways to make sure he’s involved.  Look for him to continue being our bread and butter through the air.

Rec = over   Yds = under   TD = over

KVN: I’m putting my chips down hard on Van Noy.  During the first part of the season I expect him to get more pressure on him from offenses which will limit production.  I hope this doesn’t discourage him because I feel that added pressure will be prevalent by all cougar fans.  But if the other players around KVN step up, it will free him up to do what he does best.

Sacks = under   Fumbles = under   INT = under   Tackles = over   TFL = over

Matt: It is going to be fun to watch Hoffman eclipse all three of these BYU receiving records this season, probably by the time the calendar turns to November.  8.5 receptions is 110 for the year, while 125 yards equates to over 1600 yards.  13.5 touchdowns is certainly possible, but I think that this new offense will ask for a lot of short, underneath routes.  Hoffman will be there grab possession passes and to stretch the field, but as a general rule, I think his numbers dip from last season for those reasons previously stated.  I’m taking the under on Hoffman’s over/unders, but I’m taking the over on all three of his records.

Van Noy is an interesting one to predict.  These numbers are pretty close to last year’s production and without giving opponents something else to watch for, defenses are going to really focus in on KVN and prevent a repeat of what we saw in the bowl game in December.  I think he’ll be closer to 0.5 sacks, 1.25 TFL, and 3.5 tackles per game while the INT and FF numbers might be about right.

Mike: Cody Hoffman will be one of the elite receivers in college football if his yards and TDs are near these projections.  As much as I love Cody I don’t see it.  Defenses will key on him and I believe Taysom is still at least a year away.  Van Noy is going to be even more keyed on and frankly with his great year last year he came nowhere near most of these projections.  Kyle forced zero fumbles, had 2 picks last year.  He did average 1.5 sacks with Ziggy. I see maybe 1 sack per game without Ziggy.   Love Van Noy but if I was a competing offensive coordinator KVN would be priority #1.

Hoffman: Rec = under   Yds = under   TD = under

Van Noy: Sacks = under   Fumbles = under   INT = under   Tackles = over   TFL = under

Scott: UNDER

In a vacuum, maybe it is possible they could put up those kind of those kind of numbers, but there are other people on the team. I believe Taysom Hill will spread it around to all of his receivers, so I don’t think he’ll be able to get over 1,500 yards. Kyle is great at getting to the QB, but I just can’t see him getting over 18 sacks. I think both will have great season and up their draft stock, but I can’t see them doing all of that.

I’m going to hand out another podcast shout out to the Rise and Shout podcast.  They frequently do over/under stats for BYU and I thought I’d come up with some of my own for the AI family and see what we could come up with.  Check back this whole week for the next in depth look into BYU football.

In 2012, the BYU defense turned in arguably the best defense by a BYU team ever, if not, certain since that 1996 season.  They finished in the top 3 nationally in total defense and it was highlighted by players like Kyle Van Noy and Ziggy Ansah.  While names like Ziggy, Brandon Ogletree, Uona Kavienga, and Preston Hadley have left the team, Van Noy, Spencer Hadley, and a slew of newcomers will look to make 2013 an even better season.

Can 2013 be another top 10 defense that BYU can hopefully pair with a drastically improved offense?  In order to get near that top 10 ranking in total team defense, BYU may need to reach some pretty lofty goals.  Again, these numbers are representative of the 2012 top ten total defense, in which BYU was included.

Per game: 64.5 opponent plays, 285.5 yards, 1.5 touchdowns, 14.25 points
Season: 30 total sacks, 13 INTs, 15 forces fumbles
Miscellany: 4.25 yards/play, Final total defensive rank of 10

Carl: It’s safe to say we love the defense because Kyle Van Noy is returning for his senior year.  Still, there are a lot of moving pieces to fill and the competition again may skew the numbers.  Remember, a win is a win is a win, and this year’s defense won’t need to pressure themselves in to bettering last season’s staggering defensive numbers.  With the tougher schedule, the stats are subject to rise, but this defense will compete with every team in front of them.

Per game: 64.5 Opp plays/game = over   285.5 yards/game allowed = under   1.5 TD = over   14.25 ppg = over

Season: Sacks= Under   INT = under   Fumbles = under

Miscellany: 4.25 yards per play = over   Final Rank = over

Matt: If BYU is to truly “go fast and go hard” then I think that the defense should be fired up for the offensive production and step up their level of play.  While these numbers are an average of the top ten, in most of the per game stats, it is a number well below BYU’s 3^rd place rank in 2012.  I think for the per game stats, BYU holds opponents under all the per game numbers.  Unless they can find a wrecking crew replacement for Ziggy though, the season numbers all fall short as well.  I think the final two stats work out to a push and a ranking higher than 10 but lower than the 3 they achieved in 2012.

Mike: I do agree that BYU’s defense last year was one of the best ever. Two reasons BYU won’t be anywhere near last year’s statistics.  1) BYU lost their highest defensive NFL draft pick ever, two great BYU linebackers and the meat of a great BYU secondary.  2) BYU’s 2012 strength of schedule was a whopping 48th.  Statistically USU (21st), San Jose St (30th) and Oregon State (43rd) were the top offenses BYU’s defense faced last year. BYU is facing perceivably their toughest schedule ever.  Even with Van Noy’s return I see BYU statistically looking very average next year.

Per game: 64.5 Opp plays/game = over   285.5 yards/game allowed = over   1.5 TD = over   14.25 ppg = over

Season: Sacks= Under   INT = under   Fumbles = under

Miscellany: 4.25 yards per play = over   Final Rank = over

Scott: OVER

Last season, BYU’s defense was absolutely amazing – probably the best ever. It is for this reason that I don’t think it will be recreated. Also, part of why the defense was so good last year – in my opinion – is that the room for error was zero. The defense didn’t have the luxury of giving up points and still winning games. The offense should be improved this year, and scoring more points coupled with the speed they wish to play at will make it difficult to keep the defensive statistics down.

I’m going to hand out another podcast shout out to the Rise and Shout podcast.  They frequently do over/under stats for BYU and I thought I’d come up with some of my own for the AI family and see what we could come up with.  Check back this whole week for the next in depth look into BYU football.

Taysom Hill is taking over in 2013 as the bold new leader of a team that has needed a leader that could rally the team AND play football for some time.  Will Hill be that guy?  I looked at the top 10 quarterback seasons of all-time according to Adam Mangum at Vanquish the Foe.  I found some consistencies among this elite brotherhood that includes such heroic names as Ty Detmer, Steve, Young, Steve Sarkisian, and Jim McMahon.  With all the hype coming out of Provo (hey, BYU fans are, if nothing else, masters of creating blue-goggle hype when nothing else is happening) I thought I’d see what it might take to get Taysom Hill into Adam’s top 10 this season.  These numbers are the average of Adam’s top ten list.

Passing: 4100 total yards, 66% completion rate, 34.5 TD, 14.5 INT, 9 yards/completion
Rushing: 37.5 yards/game, 8 total TD

Carl: Taysom is going to have a decent year on paper.  Expect Anae and Co. to get Taysom started much like Max Hall back in the day.  The offense will be conservative to start, but expect Hill to graduate on to a bigger playbook.  Generally, I’m putting a conservative ‘under’ value on most of the stats in question, mainly due to the strength of schedule.  I like Taysom in a leadership, move-the-chains kind of role; doing whatever he can to get a fresh set of downs and keep the offense on the field.  He won’t need to be flashy to make the offense move.

Passing: 4100 yards = under  66% rate = over   34.5 TD = under   14.5 INT = under 9yds= Over

Rushing: 37.5 YPG = over   8 TD = over

Matt: I’m taking the under on all the passing stats and pushing on the rushing stats and here is why.  If Hill had already had one full season under his belt as the starter or he wasn’t facing the level of talented opponents that he will be facing, I might be a bit more bullish on his potential in 2013, but as it is, the universe has conspired against him.  We’ll see games where he will play at a pace that would allow him to reach these numbers, but there will be others, especially early, that will show us that he is still learning.  I’m not saying he won’t have a great season; I just don’t think it makes Adam’s top ten list of all time.  2014 might be when we visit these numbers though.

Mike: I’m going under on every one of these.  The passing stats would put Taysom as one of the leading passers last year.  I love the guy but as a sophomore there’s no way.  As for the interceptions, I’m hopeful Anae won’t be throwing Taysom enough to get picked 15 times.  Riley Nelson in one of the worst passing seasons in BYU history only threw 13 INTs.  I think the rushing yards are close but I don’t see Taysom running as often as Doman ran him last year.

Scott: UNDER/OVER

Since Taysom Hill is my very first man-crush, I’m going to have to make a concerted effort to remove my bias from this. Taysom Hill is an exciting athlete to have at BYU … but he’s a sophomore. We don’t know how good of a passer he is yet, and it would be very difficult to go from having questions about his passing ability to him having a better season than either John Beck or Max Hall ever had at BYU. Plus, we don’t exactly know what Robert Anae’s offense will consist of. However, I do feel like there will be a running QB component, so while I am saying UNDER on his passing stats, I’m giving the OVER on his rushing stats.

Its been said that Bill Russell used to go the to bathroom and puke before every game.  It got so prevalent that if Red Auerbach found out he hadn’t done it, he made him go and take care of business.  Mark McGuire was so stuck in his ritual that he used the same athletic cup from high school until he retired at 38 – think about that.  Diego Maradona (manager for the Argentine national soccer team) flew his grandson to Johannesburg in 2010 to complement his rosary beads.  If you are even the remotest fan of golf, you know that Tiger Woods goes with the red polo on Sunday for every tournament.  And Michael Jordan wore his Tar Heel blue shorts under his Bulls shorts for his entire career.

So the question then is what crazy good luck charms will Dennis Lindsay and Kevin O’Connor be employing tonight as the Utah Jazz await the bouncing ping pong balls?  Whatever it is, it will need to be powerful.  The Jazz don’t have a strong possibility of reaching the promised land of the top three tonight as they only have a 0.5% chance of drawing the #1 pick and less than a 9% chance of drawing out for the top 3.  The Orlando Magic have the best chance of drawing the top pick that likely will be Kentucky freshman Nerlens Noel.  Charlotte and Cleveland round out the top three teams with the best chance get into the coveted trinity of draft picking.

With the Jazz likely drafting 14^th overall, ESPN.com has the team drafting 6-6 small forward from UCLA Shabazz Muhammad.  If you were drafting at 14, who would you take?  Lets take it even one step further.  If the Jazz land in the sought-after top three, who would you draft?  Would it be worth it to draft Noel #1 overall?  Or is it that important to you that the team get their point guard that you might trade down a few places to obtain additional assets while still staying in a position to draft a Trey Burke or Michael Carter-Williams?

Whatever you do, make sure you check in tonight on ESPN at 6:30 to see where the Jazz will be drafting on June 27.

(Bayern Munchen)

Bayern Munchen go into the final atop of the Bundesliga, having won their 22nd club till in 28 match days. The fastest team to ever be able to claim the title. The finished their year with 91 points the next closest team was Dortmund with 66 points. Also the club had a +80 goal differential. In Champions League play they had the 5th highest scorer in Thomas Muller with 8 goals, but also the 2 highest foul committees at 24 in Mario Mandzukic and Javi Martinez. Bayern has one of the most impressive front lines in soccer in Toni Kroos, Mario Mandzukic and Claudio Pizarro. Their midfield might be the best in soccer with players like Arjen Robben, Franck Ribery, Bastian Shhweinsteiger and Xherdan Shaqirl. Look for these players to push the ball up the pitch very quickly to get behind the Dortmund defense.

(Borussia Dortmund)

Borussia Dortmund is making their second appearance in a Champions league final. Having won their first title in 1997. They go into the final with the second leading scorer in the Champions league, Robert Lewandowski at 10 goals, and Mario Gotze who were top five in assists at five. Other key players for Dortmund are Marco Reus who plays forward, Iikay Gundogan, Jakub Blaszczykowski, and the captain of the team Sebastian Kehl in the midfield. Dortmund also has a good back line lead by Mat Hummels.

I don’t know if you could really say there is a favorite going into the final, but one thing is for sure it might one of the most impressive ones fans have had a chance to see. I don’t know if i see either side ever able to get on top so i expect this one to be settled in extra time or maybe even go all the way to a shootout.

]]> http://www.tornbysports.com/champions-league-final/feed/ 0 http://www.tornbysports.com/predicting-the-cougars-2013-will-this-team-be-successful/ http://www.tornbysports.com/predicting-the-cougars-2013-will-this-team-be-successful/#comments Fri, 17 May 2013 15:00:51 +0000 academicallyineligible http://www.tornbysports.com/?p=12576 Continue Reading » ]]>

I’m going to hand out another podcast shout out to the Rise and Shout podcast.  They frequently do over/under stats for BYU and I thought I’d come up with some of my own for the AI family and see what we could come up with.  Check back this whole week for the next in depth look into BYU football.

And finally, it’s time to look at the levels of production that we are all hoping to see from the team this year.

Home wins – 4.5, road wins – 3.5, total wins 8.5, points/game – 27.5, total yards/game – 470, 58 total team touchdowns, and final turnover margin +5.5

Carl: I’m going more conservative with the team overall.  I like the team and I like the potential.  But I’ve been too ‘Blue goggles’ in the past to be overly confident.  Maybe if I set the expectations lower, I’ll be pleasantly surprised when they overachieve, especially with the schedule before them.  8 wins is an acceptable season, more than that is gravy in my book. But please be that team to the north this year.  Be looking for very competitive games and possible upset victories vs. Texas, Notre Dame and Wisconsin.  BYU will match up extremely well with those teams.

Home W = under   Road W = over   Total W = under   PPG = under   YPG = under   TD = under   TO = under

Matt: I have this team winning 9 games this season which means that at least one of either home or road wins is low.  I’m guessing it will be each by 0.50 games.  27.5 ppg is pretty potent, and I think we come up short, but not by much.  I feel the total touchdowns is probably low while the team needs to make sure that they win the turnover margin this season.

Mike: I like BYU’s chances this year.  I see 8 wins with that brutal schedule.  I hope it’s more.  Points per game looks low.  Total yards and TDs looks high.  I still think Anae and Taysom need a year together before they put up dramatic numbers.  Again the schedule will make all of these projections difficult to exceed.

Home W = over   Road W = under   Total W = under   PPG = over   YPG = under   TD = under   TO = under

Scott: OVER

I am high on this year’s team, and as we get closer and closer to the beginning of the season, my expectations can only get more unrealistic. It’s silly to doubt the athletic ability of Taysom Hill, but his passing ability is open to criticism. However, how many reps was he really getting last year? How much practice did he get with the first-stringers? An entire offseason of preparation should benefit Hill greatly, and we’ll see a much improved offense, a much improved team. None of those marks are impossible to reach, but the total team touchdown one will be the most difficult to get to.

I think this is a really big step for Utah State going into their first season participating in the Mountain West. This new addition will act as a great new venue for the volleyball team as well as being a great recruiting tool. Also with the football program finishing up their new weight room, Utah State is really looking like an athletic program on the rise.

For someone who really enjoys going to the volleyball games here on campus, the idea of trying to fill a 10,000 seat venue for those games is very difficult. Now filling a 1,00 seats seems much more reasonable. Also this allows for the fans to really be a factor during games with being right on top of the players. Utah State has some of the greatest fans young and old who love cheering on their team, and in a venue like this their noise will be a major factor for away programs.

Jay Wolin

Let’s pick it up as the second half begins.

12:00, third quarter - The Warriors are up by four. They have done a good job of keeping the Spurs’ crowd out of it. They have not even played particularly well yet, which I thought was a good sign.

10:56 – Tony Parker is guarding Steph Curry at the moment, which is not good for Parker, and especially not good for the Spurs. Curry has loved the third quarter in these playoffs. He promptly crosses over Parker and drills a three in his face. Big third quarter has begun.

10:30 – Curry now has Danny Green guarding him. Bonner comes to double. Curry hit’s a step back jumper as both feet are on the three-point line. He falls into crowd and he is officially heated up. That was quick. Warriors by seven.

9:45 – Back to back sloppy turnovers by the Warriors that the Spurs turn into a Matt Bonner three and a Kawhi Leonard dunk. Why is Bonner good? Spurs cut it to one, in typical Spurs fashion. Timeout Warriors.

9:33 – Tony Parker is guarding Curry again for some reason. Three by Curry.

7:09 – After a few traded buckets, Mark Jackson makes one of his better coaching moves of the game called, “Pass the Ball to Whomever Tony Parker is Guarding.” Klay Thompson hit’s a jumper over Parker as the shot clock is running down to put Warriors back up by five. Next possession has another jumper for Thompson over Parker. Timeout Spurs.

6:20- Big three by Danny Green. Now look, Green is a former Tar Heel, so I love him. But the man killed us last night… Hold that thought until about twenty seconds left in regulation(spoiler alert!). Spurs next possession has another three by Green.

6:04- Parker is guarding Harrison Barnes now, which leads to a Bogut dunk and a hockey assist for Barnes. The Warriors should do this all game. On the next possession, Barnes takes Parker to the rim and lays it up over Duncan. The Warriors scored on like seven possessions in a row because Parker cannot guard anyone on the court. The Spurs are having to double too often.

4:10- The Spurs have had trouble getting in the lane consistently tonight. Parker finally does and passes off to Duncan. Klay Thompson commits an unnecessary foul, his fourth of the game. Keep this in mind.

2:42 – Curry has been quiet for the last seven minutes or so. He has ten points in the quarter right now, but here comes Mr. Parker to guard him again. Curry gets kind of sloppy, but still drains a jumper just inside the three-point line. Warriors up eight.

2:16 – Cory Joseph comes to guard Curry. Bogut sets a high screen for Curry. Since Curry has been getting to the rim all night, Duncan sits in the paint as Curry nails a three. Wait, what? Curry hasn’t been getting to the rim at all? Duncan shouldn’t be fifteen feet off him?

1:35 – Another high pick for Curry, Duncan does jump out to help and Curry gets to the rim for a lay-up. Seven points in the last minute. 17 for the quarter. Warriors up 13.

1:22 – Ginoboli looks like a second grader when he dribbles with his right hand. It is amusing. He misses a lefty hook in the lane. The Spurs are struggling and it looks as if the game is starting to slip away a bit.

1:10 – Curry gets by Joseph by himself this time and throws up a nice banker. Nine points in the last minute and a half, 19 for the quarter.

0:37 – Curry is just dribbling at the three-point line. Through the legs, behind the back. He takes it back out towards midcourt and decides to pull up from, oh, let’s say seven feet behind the three-point line and drains it. On the way back up the court, he spits fire out of his mouth. Warriors up eighteen. 22 for the quarter. The Warriors now just need to keep this lead for the next 37 seconds and take a sizable lead into the fourth quarter in San Antonio.

End of third quarter – They didn’t keep the lead at eighteen. Ginoboli gets an and-1. Green hits another three. With four seconds left. The refs say Curry steps on the line as he throws the ball in, even though he probably didn’t. They call a foul on Jarret Jack on the inbounds and Gary Neal hits two free throws. San Antonio gets eight points in the last 25 seconds of the quarter. Instead of hitting the fourth quarter with a 16-18 point lead, it is cut to 12. Awesome.

9:56, fourth quarter – Apparently, only the Spurs can set illegal screens. Barnes is called for a foul when Joseph runs straight into his chest and falls on the ground. So, actually that wasn’t even an illegal screen. Curry’s three is nullified. Teams trade buckets. 96-82, Warriors. Carl Landry misses two free throws on the next possession.

8:02 – Leonard gets a nice offensive rebound. Thompson fouls him from behind. Thompson now has five. And the Warriors have 98 points at the moment.

7:10 – Jack thinks he can shoot it like Curry or Thompson, so he puts up way too many jumpers. I would tell you about it every time, but I want to throw my computer every time I type it out, so I am not going to do that. Curry travels on the next possession. He did travel, but we need to call it both ways, and when I say “we” I mean the NBA refs.

6:18 – And-1 for Leonard. 6-0 run for Spurs. Lead down to ten.

5:34 – Curry hits back to back floaters in the lane over Duncan to extend lead to 14. I wish Curry could, or would decide to get into the lane much more consistently. Jack knocks down two free throws to extend lead to 16. Duncan goes to the locker room because of an illness.

3:57 – Parker drives, Thompson moves his feet, Parker falls to ground. Foul number six on Thompson. Parker does this same thing on defense three times later in this game and is not whistled once.

And right about now I am tempted to stop this diary and tell you the Warriors learned from game six against the Nuggets and smoothly closed it out… but in no way did that happen.

Richard Jefferson checks into the game(for the first time) instead of Bogut, since Bogut has been a rebounding machine and kept the Spurs from dominating inside. That makes sense, right?

2:42 – Parker hits two free throws, realizes Bogut isn’t in the lane and gets back to back lay ups, then dishes to Leonard for a third lay-up to cut it to eight. Let’s keep Bogut sitting, shall we?

1:57 – Warriors finally get a stop as Draymond Green picks off a Parker pass. He passes it up to a wide open Richard Jefferson, who is so slow and so old that someone catches up to him and fouls him. Jefferson promptly misses two free throws. Good thing we brought him in for the first time with four minutes left. Leonard hit’s a three on the ensuing possession. Lead cut to five.

1:18 – Parker is wondering why Bogut still isn’t in the game and takes it to the rim for another lay up to cut it to three. I love Curry, but when the defense tightens up and the Warriors need a bucket, I have zero ideas of how they are going to get one in that situation. That is why Golden State lost games where he scored 54 and 47.

0:29 – After two Diaw free throws, Jack finally gets a bucket to go.

0:20 – Danny Green gets open for a three after setting a screen for Leonard. Jarrett Jacks looks confused and can merely look at Green from a safe distance as he cans the game tying three. Curry cannot get a good look for some reason at the other end. OVERTIME. 106-106 Eight points in the last eight minutes for the Warriors. Every Warriors fan secretly is wondering how they can pull it off now.

4:07, overtime- Barnes nails a three to put Warriors up five.

2:28- Ginoboli drives with the Spurs down three and kicks out to an open Diaw in the corner. I could not have been happier. His three rims in. Dang it. Tie game.

1:02- Leonard abuses Jack in the post as if his name were Andre Miller. Short jumper gives the Spurs a two point lead. Curry is settling for jumpers now. And when you have played more than fifty minutes, it’s going to be tough to knock them down. And when his jumper isn’t falling, what will he do?

0:20 – Jack gets in the lane, where he is infinitely more effective than when he is shooting jumpers, for a lay up to tie the game.

0:00 – Ginoboli misses a jumper that moves the bottom of the net. It stops my heart momentarily before realizing the ball did not go in. DOUBLE OVERTIME

3:20, second overtime – After Barnes hit’s a three Parker makes a nice spin to the middle for a lay up. It looks good, but it is obvious that he took three steps with the ball to get by Bogut, which apparently is legal if your name is Tony Parker?

2:10 – Bogut has been playing out of his mind lately, but he sits too far back on defense sometimes. Pick and rolls up high are so easy for the opposition if your point guard can make an open jumper. Diaw hit’s a shot from the free throw line to give the Spurs the lead because Bogut is practically under the rim.

1:06 – Danny Green hits another monster three from the exact same spot as the one he hit at the end of regulation. Spurs are up five. A lady with a high squeal of a scream is sitting right next to TNT’s microphone.

0:32 – Curry hits two free throws. Manu takes an ill-advised, deep three with plenty of time on the shot clock and misses. Curry takes it the other way for a floater to cut the lead to one.

0:17 – Parker gets a switch that he has been looking for because Barnes has been giving him trouble. He takes Kent Bazemore to the hoop…

0:10 – Bazemore plays great defense and Parker misses a tough lay up. The Warriors start running.

0:3.9 – Bazemore hit’s a reverse lay up to give the Warriors the lead! Greatest sequence any of you have ever seen from someone named Bazemore. Spurs timeout.

0:1.2 – Jarrett Jack apparently has no idea what the Warriors are trying to accomplish when teams set screens late in games. He starts off guarding Diaw on the inbounds from the side. Diaw sets a screen for Parker, but not a good one and Barnes sticks with Parker. Bazemore has to sit with Diaw in the lane because Jack is doubling Parker at half court. Ginoboli slips to the weak side three-point line and Leonard delivers a strike. Manu takes the three and cans it. Spurs by two. Here comes one of the many differences between the Warriors and Spurs.

0:00-  Jack gets a pass a few feet above the three-point line and is well covered. He throws up a shot that doesn’t have any chance of going in. Spurs win.

And there is one of the many differences. Going through almost 200 playoff games, you are going to learn a few things. When the Spurs HAD to have a bucket, they got the ball to one of their two best players on the court. Not only did they put him a situation to succeed, he was WIDE OPEN. When the Warriors HAD to have a bucket, Jarrett Jack was running away from the hoop and threw up a prayer.

What a heart breaker. The Warriors had a chance to shock the world, end a historic losing streak and put themselves in a real good spot to steal a series. But they failed to close out a game well for the second time in a row. But, I guess that is why they are four-time champions, and the Warriors are… the Warriors.

For the Warriors it’s David Lee. For the Bulls it’s Derrick Rose. For the Thunder it’s Russell Westbrook. Who would have thought that the best team in the playoffs and in the league wouldn’t be plagued by injuries as badly as their counterparts? The Miami Heat, despite dropping game one to Chicago last night, has to like their chances going forward simply for the fact that their best players are playing injury free. While there was much speculation surrounding Dwayne Wade near the end of the regular season, nothing seems to be affecting him now.

Injuries this late in the season gives rise to the unpredictable. It gives way to Nate Robinson and Reggie Jackson without the fear of getting benched because they can’t be. Respectively, they are their teams only options in supplementing at least some of what they lost. I wouldn’t go as far as calling it a win-win because sooner or later a team has to have effective star-power to win deep in the playoffs, especially in this day in age.

Take Robinson for example and what he has done in place of Rose for the Bulls. Robinson, 28, has played for four different teams in his eight seasons in the league. I think it would be safe to say that he has been unable to build tenure with a single franchise because his game is simply inconsistent. ESPN’s Ryen Russillo referred to Robinson as a “flawed player.” Maybe he’s right. Robinson has shown us time and time again how to take terrible shots, miss most of them, and in the process not knowing whether to be a one or a two guard despite being the smallest guy on the court.

But none of that matters now. There isn’t a team out there right now that has been plagued by injuries like Chicago is. Not only have they gotten by without their top two scoreres in Rose and Luol Deng, but they have doing it by riding the back of an unproven, illegitimate guard. Don’t get me wrong. They didn’t beat the Nets and they aren’t up 1-0 on the Heat solely because of Robinson, but what it comes down to is the fact that I like the Bulls chances like I like the Pacers chances. Any team that plays great defense in the playoffs and can do enough to get by offensively has an above average chance of advancing.

Here is how I see the playoffs playing out:

Pending a Derrick Rose return, Heat in 6

Pacers play defense, Knicks shoot jump shots and don’t rebound, Pacers in 5

Warriors lost the series after blowing game 1, Spurs in 6

Thunder have enough w/o Westbrook to get by, OKC in 7