66 Games of Nuggets

By Daniel Lewis

Where were you when the NBA lockout ended?

I felt like a little kid on Christmas, waking up and finding such a surprise waiting for me. I was in New York City, and walked past Madison Square Garden. I could almost hear the sounds of fans cheering on the Knicks. Too bad they don’t come out to Denver or Salt Lake City. I could have expelled some demons telling Carmelo how I really felt about him leaving.

It’s one of the consequences of the lockout I suppose.

Another consequence of the lockout is the Nuggets roster being pieced together via free agency and the draft. Other teams such as Utah, Oklahoma City, or Portland were able to stay the course and start training camp with a full roster. Denver didn’t even have 12 players come to practice December 9th.

A few days later, and now the Nuggets are two moves away from ready up. Here’s my season preview, with the hope that Aaron Afflalo gets on board and Al Harrington sails away to anywhere else.

 

 

Starters

The rotation is very similar to last season post-Carmelo. Lots of athletes, multiple shooters, and speed. Lots of speed. I think it’s the best strategy for playing games one mile above sea level, in an effort to just grind down opponents.

Lawson and Miller are going to share minutes at the point, with coach Karl starting the hot hand. Miller is too experienced to not play, and Lawson has too much potential to sit on the bench. The team used two point guards playing together last season, and have practiced doing so in training camp this year.

The real weakness they have is down low in the post. Faried was the Manimal at Morehead State, and lead the nation in rebounding. Will that transfer to the NBA? Most likely not during his rookie year, but the Nuggets will hope that he develops into a valuable rotational player. They need him to start, but he likely won’t play more than 20-25 minutes, chipping in 8-10 points and 8 rebounds.

Denver is looking for Gallinari (Gallo for short) to develop into the scorer he has projected to be – he’s the Mile High version of Gordon Hayward. Gallo needs to improve his defense, but playing against small forwards should help, especially down low in the post. He struggles at the 4, but can slide over and help stretch the court by pulling his defender to the 3-point line.

Afflalo is important in so many ways for this team. He provides leadership, an asset much appreciated in Denver these days. He shouldn’t be asked to power the offense, but he can contribute by spacing the floor and playing quality defense. He’ll see an uptick in his numbers as he continues to find his niche in the Denver system.

Nene starts at center, but needs to slide to the four during games to help alleviate the lack of depth there. Nene is the focal point of the Nugget attack – crashing off of pick and rolls, sucking up the ball when they feed the post, and cutting backdoor for the alley-oop. Sure, he needs to improve on defense, but without him, the Nuggets aren’t winning many games. Losing his 15-20 points and 7-8 rebounds per game would have hurt the Nuggets, because without him, they have a small inside presence.

Reserves

The reason behind the winning post-Carmelo was the power of the rotation. Denver just kept running, putting two point guards out and going small, or throwing three wings into the lanes on offense and defense. This year could be very similar, thanks to the addition of Corey Brewer and Rudy Fernandez.

(Side note – Fernandez came with Brewer for a 2nd round pick, after being traded for a 1st round pick last season. What was Dallas thinking? Whatever. If I talk about it more, David Stern will veto it.)

The Dr. ‘Dre of Denver has experience running the offense, and is one of the most experienced point guards in the league. Like most of the Nuggets, Andre Miller has deficiencies on defense that expose the years he’s spent in the NBA. Luckily, the trade with Dallas has brought in two above average defenders.

Rudy Fernandez needs to improve his outside shooting touch, and Corey Brewer needs to find his. It’s a good thing they can defend though, because otherwise the starters resting could mean the collapse of the scoring bubble. Fernandez and Brewer need to pick up the offense quick, because the second unit is missing one thing – that uncontrollable shooter. JR Smith used to be that guy, always available to take the shot. If Nene, Gallo, and Afflalo are gone, who is taking the shots? Miller will have to paint a masterpiece to get his teammates involved, creating space and driving the lane.

The Euros at center – Mozgov and Koufus – I’m not really sure what they do. If they can clean the glass, block a few shots a game, and put back a few offensive rebounds, they’ll at least be filling out their contract. The Nuggets just need them to get the ball on defense, and not turn it over on offense.

The remaining reserves, Chris Anderson and Jordan Hamilton, will also likely see time. The Birdman may be the ugliest player outside of Chris Kaman, but he’ll torment other teams’ fans by making a few 15-footers, slamming home a dunk, blocking shots, taking charges, and snagging rebounds. Jordan Hamilton could evolve into the JR Smith shooter role, one that he started developing at Texas.

Playoffs?

As a Nuggets fan, yes. I see the same strengths as last season, with the option of adding Wilson Chandler for the playoff run once his Chinese contract runs out too. Their offensive firepower needs to overcome the defense’s limitations, but that’s been the story the last few years. The team still doesn’t have a superstar on offense, but there aren’t many in the division once you get past Kevin Love and Kevin Durant. If they can keep pace with the Trailblazers, they’ll fight it out for second place behind Oklahoma City. If they can reproduce last year’s success at home, I predict they go 40-26.

January should be good, February bad, March good, and April fun as the postseason race comes to an end. Denver has nine straight home games at the beginning of March – if they aren’t in the top three of the division after that, the playoffs will be a tough task. April has six games against the Pacific Division, and only three against  Northwest Division opponents. So they won’t be able to take games from divisional rivals, but they won’t be losing games to them either. Only 5 games in April against playoff teams from last season, which means that Denver could make it into the playoffs with a little momentum.

The bad side of things? Fail to sign Afflalo, the second unit doesn’t score, and the team gets crushed before the All-Star game and look to rebuild. Fernandez has a player option on his contract for 2013, which means the Nuggets have another player who may only be around for the year. Increasing the lottery odds isn’t the worst idea in a loaded draft, one that could supply the superstar the Nuggets needed against the Thunder in the playoffs last season. Many of the top prospects are forwards, and could slide into a rotation of Nene, Faried, and Anderson and begin to develop. Considering our main rival across the Rockies is stockpiling big bodies, it wouldn’t hurt to bolster the ranks with a top player.

The Big Finish

The Nuggets are in a win-now mode, one that they haven’t left since Kroenke Sports & Entertainment bought the team. Masai Ujiri has done a great job getting value from the Carmelodrama, and the team still has three draft picks they can use (2012 2nd, 2013 2nd, 2014 1st).

 

The team just needs to avoid the problems every team faces: lack of commitment on defense, not sharing the basketball, and injuries. If the team can play a similar style of basketball that fans saw after the All-Star break, then they’ll be a lock for the playoffs.

I don’t predict that they will go very far in the postseason however. A lack of defensive players down low and no established go-to guy will be their downfall, and unless they grab the 5 seed, they’ll probably fall to one of the division champions. That’ll put them out of range of a marquee player in the draft, and they’ll have to look for a player to put alongside Nene down low.

Enjoy the season though! The compact schedule will be fun to watch, especially with all the young teams in the Northwest Division. Get ready guys, the blue and yellow are coming to your arena soon.